Analysts estimate that the index-driven buying could be spread over a period of 11 to 14 months, making the anticipated inclusion a significant development for the stock.
The Nifty 50 index is reshuffled twice a year based on six-month data ending January 31 and July 31, with changes implemented in March and September. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) evaluates the average free-float market capitalisation of stocks over the preceding six months to determine their eligibility for inclusion in the index.
At the close of trading on October 29, Jio Platforms had a total market capitalisation of Rs 13.1 lakh crore. Its free-float market capitalisation stood at Rs 28,524 crore, according to the NSE.
During the listing process, 3% of the company's shares were made publicly available for trading. Around 32.5% of its shareholding falls under Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), reflecting long-term investments from Google, Meta, General Atlantic and others.
However, the lock-in period on these holdings is set to expire by April 2027, potentially opening the door for a significant increase in the company's free float.
According to Mannat Gandhi, Database Analyst at PL Capital, April 2027 could prove to be an important period for potential stake sales, with around 299.78 crore pre-IPO shares, representing 32.5% of the equity capital, set to come out of lock-in.
Meta, Google, PE investors' holding set to be free float by April '27
By April 2027, stakes held by financial investors such as PIF, Silver Lake and KKR are expected to qualify as free float, according to analysts. This would increase Jio Platforms' free float to around 18.3%.
If the holdings of Meta and Google are also treated as free float, the figure could rise further to around 35.5%.
Based on a share price of Rs 1,480 and a subsequent free-float market capitalisation of Rs 4.8 lakh crore, Jio Platforms could command a weight of 4.2% in the Nifty 50 index.
If included in the Sensex, its weight could reach 4.9%. The Sensex weight would be higher because the index comprises 30 stocks and has a smaller total value.
For comparison, the latest Nifty 50 entrants, BSE and InterGlobe Aviation, have free-float market capitalisations of Rs 1.42 lakh crore and Rs 1.05 lakh crore, respectively.
Gandhi also pointed out that around 7.25 crore anchor shares, representing 0.8% of the equity, will unlock between November 2026 and January 2027. This would take the total number of shares coming out of lock-in to approximately 307 crore, or 33.3%.
She added that if the stock records a good upside and market conditions remain favourable, existing investors may consider selling around 1-2% stake.
"However, this will largely depend on the stock's performance and investors' willingness to sell. Any such stake sale could also help improve the free float and liquidity."
Derivatives eligibility
Under the regulations, only stocks included in the derivatives segment, where futures and options (F&O) contracts are available for trading, can become part of the Nifty 50 index.
Gandhi suggested that Jio Platforms could potentially enter the F&O segment by June-July 2027. With a market capitalisation of more than Rs 13 lakh crore, the company is well-positioned to meet the size-related parameters.
"With its six-month trading history completing around April 2027, inclusion could follow in the subsequent months, subject to meeting the other eligibility criteria and regulatory approval," she added.
Jio Platforms' index inclusion
"September 2027 could be the earliest potential window for Jio Platforms' inclusion in the Nifty 50, provided it becomes F&O eligible ahead of the index review," said Gandhi.
Fund managers also believe that large-scale open-market selling following the expiry of lock-in periods is unlikely.
On this view, index-driven buying could emerge as a strong tailwind for the stock. A rerating could follow if Jio Platforms' AI and enterprise businesses justify its premium to Airtel, even after the locked-in shares become available for trading.
The anticipated inclusion in the Nifty 50 and Sensex could therefore bring a substantial increase in passive fund demand, with the estimated Rs 36,500 crore in buying potentially spread across 11 to 14 months.
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